Gas prices are well above $4, ceasefire negotiations are on ice and airlines are warning that they’re running out of jet fuel. So, it sure seems odd that stocks are at record highs.
Blame CNN. No, really. Not for world events or the machinations of the markets, but for the perception that those two things are connected.
CNN (and the media as a whole) has forever linked current events with the performance of the stock market — it’s right there in a little “Dow” bug at the bottom of the screen during live news coverage.
That’s why we often view the stock market as a mirror. But the market isn’t a mirror; it’s a prediction engine.
Stock fluctuations are barometers for how a vast array of information — robust profit performance, a CEO gets sick, a competitor builds a better product, AI threatens an entire line of business — changes the perceived value of a particular company’s shares and its long-term earnings potential.
Once Wall Street believes the ramifications of a big news event have been appropriately priced into a stock, it moves onto the next thing – typically faster than Main Street has.
We’re all reading the markets wrong
by David Goldman
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/30/economy/stock-markets-record-high
Gas prices are well above $4, ceasefire negotiations are on ice and airlines are warning that they’re running out of jet fuel. So, it sure seems odd that stocks are at record highs.
Blame CNN. No, really. Not for world events or the machinations of the markets, but for the perception that those two things are connected.
CNN (and the media as a whole) has forever linked current events with the performance of the stock market — it’s right there in a little “Dow” bug at the bottom of the screen during live news coverage.
That’s why we often view the stock market as a mirror. But the market isn’t a mirror; it’s a prediction engine.
Stock fluctuations are barometers for how a vast array of information — robust profit performance, a CEO gets sick, a competitor builds a better product, AI threatens an entire line of business — changes the perceived value of a particular company’s shares and its long-term earnings potential.
Once Wall Street believes the ramifications of a big news event have been appropriately priced into a stock, it moves onto the next thing – typically faster than Main Street has.
“It often feels like the stock market operates in an alternate universe,” said Kevin Ford, market strategist at Convera. “It’s less an alternate universe than an alternate timeline.”
We’ve seen this story
Markets have operated on an alternate timeline before.
But headlines still matter. The market is priced for perfection, the saying goes, and investors are pricing stocks for the expectation of how much profit they’ll deliver in the future.
New information, such as an escalation or de-escalation of a war, increases the uncertainty around those profits, and it forces traders to re-price their bets.
That’s why the Iran war shook the stock market in late February. The Nasdaq, filled with tech stocks that are particularly sensitive to inflation, took news of the war particularly hard. It fell into correction territory — when a stock or index falls 10% or more from a recent peak. The Dow followed suit and the S&P 500 nearly got there, too.
But then, on the last day of March, the market’s perception of the war shifted. Trump and his administration started seeking opportunities to end the war.
Stuff stopped blowing up, and markets moved on: The S&P 500 gained nearly 3% that day and never looked back. Stocks have gained another 10% since then.
The economic situation hasn’t changed – if anything, it got worse: The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, locking in a fifth of the world’s oil and other crucial supplies, raising the risk of shortages and price spikes in the future.
The market knows all that. Investors just believe that risk is appropriately priced into stock prices.
“I don’t see a market ignoring risk; I see markets making a judgement that the global economy and corporate earnings can absorb it,” said Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group. “Markets don’t wait for certainty, they move as soon as the worst-case scenario starts to fade.”
The risk
The prediction engine is often wrong, and the worst-case scenario is still very much a possibility.
Peace talks don’t happen over a period of days or weeks, they happen over a period of months. Iran has shown no urgency to open the strait while negotiations continue. Meanwhile, the supply chain is getting stretched again and could break this summer if the strait remains closed. Shortages could send prices surging. Injecting more uncertainty into an economy that’s already full of it could tip it over the edge into a recession.
But risk runs both ways. There’s no certainty that when the market gets something wrong, it will be a negative risk. The market could also miss out on a massive buying opportunity.
Earnings are strong, AI is fueling a massive technology investment boom, and the economy has remained robust. The Citi Economic Surprise Index — a measure of how much better or worse the economy is performing compared to the market’s implied expectations — has been on a tear, on its longest positive run in nearly two decades. In other words, the markets keep underappreciating how strong the economy is. It’s hard, as a trader, to ignore surprisingly good news.
“It’s not that the headlines aren’t real — the headlines are real, and they’re scary,” said Rick Gardner, chief investment officer at RGA Investments. “But we’ll have a scary headline, and then we’ll get earnings announcements that are knocking it out of the park. That can drown out headlines for investors.”
【分析】景気は悪化しているのに株価は大幅高、その理由は
by デービッド・ゴールドマン
https://www.msn.com/ja-jp/money/other/分析-景気は悪化しているのに株価は大幅高、その理由は/ar-AA228J5k
（CNN） 米国のガソリン価格は4ドルを上回り、戦闘終結に向けた交渉は暗礁に乗り上げ、航空会社はジェット燃料不足を警告している。そうした中で、株価が大幅高を記録しているのはなんとも奇妙に思える。
これはCNNのせいだ。いや、本当に。奇妙だと感じるのは、世界の出来事のせいでも市場の動きのせいでもなく、この二つの事象が連動しているという認識のせいだ。
CNNをはじめとするメディアは、現在起きている出来事と株式市場のパフォーマンスを常に結びつけてきた。ニュースの生放送中、画面下部には小さく「ダウ」が表示されている。
だから私たちは株式市場を鏡のように見なしがちだ。しかし市場は鏡なのではなく、予測エンジンだ。
株価の変動は、力強い業績、経営者の健康状態、競合のより優れた製品開発、人工知能（AI）がもたらす事業全体への脅威といった膨大な情報が特定企業の株式の認知価値と長期的な収益見通しをどう変えるかを示す指標だ。
ウォール街は、大きなニュースの影響が株価に適切に織り込まれたと判断すれば、次の材料へと移行する。通常、一般市民よりもすばやく。
「株式市場はまるで別の宇宙で動いているように感じることが多い」と、決済企業コンベラの市場ストラテジスト、ケビン・フォード氏は語る。「別の宇宙というより、別の時間軸といったところか」
これまでにも見られた動き
市場は以前も別の時間軸で動いてきた。
・2009年3月、数カ月にわたる深刻な景気後退が続く中、株価は反騰し始めた。
・パンデミック（世界的大流行）によって世界経済が史上最悪の不況に見舞われ、回復まで何年もかかったにもかかわらず、市場はわずか1カ月後に急反発した。
・トランプ米大統領が昨年8月に歴史的な関税を課した後も市場は上昇を続けた。
しかし、ニュースの見出しは依然として重要だ。市場は完璧な状態を織り込んでいると言われるように、投資家は将来の期待利益を株価に反映させている。戦争の激化や緩和といった新たな情報は、その利益をめぐる不確実性を高め、トレーダーに見通しの修正を迫る。
だからこそ、イランとの戦争は2月下旬に株式市場を揺るがした。ハイテク株が多くを占めるナスダックはインフレにとりわけ敏感なため、戦争のニュースを特に重く受け止め、調整局面に入った。ダウ工業株平均もそれに続き、S&P500指数もそれに迫った。
だが3月末になって市場の戦争に対する見方は変わった。トランプ氏と政権が戦争終結の機会を模索し始めたのだ。
攻撃が止み、市場は前進。S&P500はその日、約3%上昇し、その後も勢いを保ち続けた。株価はこれ以降、さらに10%上昇している。
経済状況は変わっていない。というよりむしろ悪化している。ホルムズ海峡は閉鎖されたまま世界の石油や重要物資の5分の1が滞留し、将来の供給不足や価格急騰のリスクは高まっている。
市場はすべて承知している。投資家はただ、そのリスクが株価に適切に織り込まれていると判断しているのだ。
「市場がリスクを無視するとは思わない。市場は世界経済と企業収益がそれを吸収できると判断しているというのが私の見立てだ」。デビア・グループのナイジェル・グリーン最高経営責任者（CEO）はそう語る。「市場は確実性を待たない。最悪のシナリオが遠のき始めた瞬間に動くのだ」
リスク
この予測エンジンは間違えることも多く、最悪のシナリオはいまだ十分に起こりえる。
和平交渉は数日や数週間で決まるものではなく、数カ月を要する。交渉が続く中でも、イランに海峡の開放を急ぐ姿勢は見られない。一方、サプライチェーン（供給網）は再び逼迫（ひっぱく）しており、海峡が閉鎖されたままなら今夏にも崩壊するおそれがある。供給不足により物価が急騰し、すでに不確実性に満ちている経済の先行きに不透明感が増せば、景気後退に陥りかねない。
しかし、リスクは双方向だ。市場が判断を誤ったとしても、それが必ずマイナスのリスクになるとは限らない。市場が大きな買い時を見逃す可能性もある。
企業収益は好調で、AIが巨額のテクノロジー投資ブームをけん引し、経済は堅調ぶりを保っている。市場の期待に対する経済の乖離（かいり）度合いを示す指標「シティ経済サプライズ指数」は、この約20年で最長となるプラス方向の推移を続けている。つまり、市場は経済の力強さを過小評価し続けているのだ。トレーダーとして、予想外の好材料を無視するのは難しい。
「見出しが真実ではないということではない、見出しは真実だし、恐ろしい内容だ」と、RGAインベストメンツの最高投資責任者リック・ガードナー氏は言う。「しかし、恐ろしい見出しが出た後に、想定以上の好決算の発表が続く。それが見出しをかき消してしまうことがある」
Why are stocks setting records when the economy feels down in the dumps?
by David Goldman
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/15/business/stock-market-dow-record-economy-jobs-inflation
Hiring is at a standstill. Inflation is on the rise again. Consumer sentiment is slipping near historic lows. Americans are increasingly fed up with the economy.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has hit four record highs this month. The Dow closed above 46,000 for the first time in history on Thursday. So, if the economy stinks, why is the stock market so delighted?
In some ways, stocks are trading at record highs because of the bad juju in America’s economy, not in spite of it.
A surprisingly weak job market has significantly boosted investors’ expectations that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates multiple times this year, according to CME FedWatch, a tool that assigns probabilities of Fed rate decisions to market machinations. The market is pricing in an 80% chance of a December rate cut, an 86% chance of an October cut and a 100% chance that the Fed cuts rates at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday.
The market has been eager for lower borrowing costs – the Fed hasn’t cut rates at all in 2025 after slashing rates by a percentage point across three meetings at the end of last year. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policy has given the voting committee pause. Inflation has crept higher over the past several months in part because tariffs are – slowly – starting to boost prices. Rate cuts could exacerbate inflation.
Wall Street loves rate cuts, because they can help boost businesses’ profits by lowering costs for loans. That gives more perceived underlying value to the companies’ stocks, and it can give employers extra cash to hire. That’s why rate cuts tend to boost the economy over time.
Stock investors have also cheered some long-awaited strength in the bond market, which has suddenly gained steam because of intensifying fears about a slowdown in job growth. The safe-haven US Treasury market has been on fire in recent days as traders have been pricing in Fed rate cuts, which tend to drive yields lower and prices higher (prices and yields trade in opposite directions). The 2-year Treasury yield is trading near its lowest level since the 2022 inflation crisis, and the 10-year Treasury yield is flirting with 4% for the first time since April’s tariff-fueled meltdown.
Lower bond yields also help businesses spend less on their debt, adding potential value to their stocks.
The S&P 500, the benchmark for the stock market, has gained 6% since the shocking August 1 jobs report showed hiring slowed down significantly and the US economy had actually created a quarter million fewer jobs over the previous two months than previously believed. The market has been on a particular tear in September in the leadup to the Fed meeting, as more moribund jobs data poured in – the S&P 500 has posted gains in six of nine sessions this month.
So bad news about the economy has certainly been good news for stocks in recent months.
But that’s not the full story.
What else is driving stocks higher
Although the Fed has undoubtedly boosted optimism that the already-historically expensive stock market still has room to run, strength in company earnings have helped give traders confidence, too: Wall Street’s profit and sales growth expectations remain rock-solid.
And, after all, the stock market is really just a collection of individual companies whose prices move up or down based on their perceived value. If investors didn’t have faith that the companies that they trade would make them money, they probably wouldn’t value the stocks so highly.
The artificial intelligence industry’s electric growth has also been fueling the market’s rise. Nine of the 10 most valuable stocks on the market are deeply involved in AI, and they collectively make up about 40% of the entire value of the stock market.
To give a sense of how much enthusiasm the market has for AI, Oracle’s stock shot 36% higher in a single day last week, after a stellar forecast for AI-fueled datacenter demand. That briefly made cofounder Larry Ellison the world’s richest person (though he finished Wednesday $1 billion poorer than Elon Musk), and it propelled Oracle (ORCL) into the top-10 list of most valuable companies on the market.
And stocks have gained ground after Trump’s tariffs went into effect in early August, giving businesses a bit of certainty after months of on-again, off-again trade threats that prevented companies from making informed decisions about their investments. The tax benefits delivered in Trump’s signature “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” also helped give companies some additional support to their bottom lines – and it gives investors confidence that the massive fluctuations in White House policy maneuvers have settled down and they can therefore take on some more risk in their portfolios.
Meanwhile, consumers have continued to spend, despite tariffs and growing concerns about the economy. Spending rose 0.5% in July, the Commerce Department reported two weeks ago. That’s crucial: Consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of US gross domestic product, the broadest measure of America’s economy.
“It’s not just the Fed,” said Citi Research analyst Scott Chronert in a note to investors on Friday. “Earnings expectations continue to be strong while rate volatility and levels falls. Combined, this is a powerful narrative for risk assets.”
Why stocks could fall
But there’s still reason for concern.
Stocks are historically pricey: The S&P 500 is trading at 3.3 times the value of its constituents’ sales expectations, the highest on record. It’s also at a historically high price-to-earnings ratio of 25 to 1; that means for a company to earn $1 in future earnings, investors are willing to pay $25 in share price. That means investors may be getting a bit ahead of themselves.
Price increases may start to weigh on consumer spending, eroding the case for companies’ sales growth. Inflation this year has added $195 a month in costs for a typical American household, according to Moody’s Chief Economist Mark Zandi.
As costs start to rise, consumers have been adding to their already massive debt loads, which could become a problem. Debt delinquencies are on the rise, accelerating because of student loan debt payments restarting in October 2024, according to Dana Telsey, CEO and chief research officer of Telsey Advisory Group. Student loan repayments will suck $80 billion out of the economy this year, Brookings said last week.
Inflation, though not at runaway levels like in 2022, is becoming such a concern that a traditional inflation hedge is setting new records: gold. Trading at nearly $3,700, gold has gained about 40% this year and recently eclipsed its inflation-adjusted record-high set 45 years ago. Traders worried about inflation tend to pour money in gold, which some believe holds an intrinsic value that hedges against rising prices.
Gary Friedman, CEO of RH (formerly Restoration Hardware), made the case Thursday on a call with Wall Street analysts that tariffs and inflation pose a more significant threat to businesses than most people realize – so he’s not all that excited about a rate cut from the Fed.
“What do I worry the most about? Just kill inflation. I’m more motivated about killing inflation than getting an interest rate cut right now, because we had an interest rate cut and the tariffs create more inflation than anybody thinks,” Friedman said. “I don’t want to win because 50% of our competitors who are really good, hard working people, get wiped out.”
“I really don’t think anybody is thinking about the math,” he added.