As of July 17, 2026 UTC, the United States Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate is currently at ¥ 162.4471.
The 5-year outlook turns increasingly bullish, projecting the exchange rate at ¥ 196.4473 on average – representing a potential +3.9% /yr gain from current levels. At this horizon, our algorithmic model shifts the outlook to suggest a strong positive trend, reflecting our AI’s long-term macro assessment.
Over a 10-year horizon, the long-term forecast suggests an average rate of ¥ 225.9964 (+3.4% /yr). Given these parameters, our long-term model indicates a strong positive trend, with a projected variance of ±14.7%. Long-term projections naturally carry greater uncertainty, shaped by broader macroeconomic cycles and geopolitical developments.

We Must Act Now

A Statement on AI’s Transformation of the Economy

1. AI may become radically more powerful over the next 10 years.
2. This could drive an unprecedented transformation of our economy, larger than the Industrial Revolution, but unfolding over a vastly shorter time frame. It could bring risks, including large-scale job displacement, as well as opportunities such as major gains in living standards.
3. Economists, policymakers and technology leaders must act now to understand the economics of transformative AI and to build the incentives, guardrails, and institutions needed to steer AI in a direction that complements humans and benefits society.

Every morning you have two choices:
Continue to sleep with your dreams or wake up and chase them 💪🏻

「GPIF をはじめとする年金基金に、日本の金融資産にさらに投資してもらう方向で後押しする方策を追求したいと考えている」
ーー片山さつき財務・金融担当相

「大規模な年金基金の投資を為替レート目的に活用すべきではない」
ーー米財務省の外国為替政策報告書

イビツァ・オシムは、2013年に故郷ボスニアで民族融和のためのスタジアム改修に日本の外務省がODA予算をつけた際、当該部署から「オシムさんもこのプロジェクトの実行委員会に入って欲しい」と言われたことがある。
プロジェクト自体は素晴らしい。しかしオシムはこの誘いにNOと言った。その理由は「日本政府がどれだけ清廉な入札方法を提示してもボスニアでは確実に汚職が起きて誰かの懐にお金が入る。そういう不正に自分の名前が使われて結果的に加担するのは本意ではない」というものであった。